Momentum Blackjack Rob Cheng Copyright March 22, 1999 Introduction OK, I guess the cat's gotta come out of the bag sometime. I've been playing a lot of blackjack lately, and frankly, I've made a ton of dough. Here is a little list of my winnings: Feb 12, 1999 $1500 Las Vegas Feb 13, 1999 $1500 Las Vegas Feb 14, 1999 $1500 Las Vegas Feb 20, 1999 $2500 Sioux City Mar 6, 1999 $2000 Sioux City Mar 20, 1999 $4000 Las Vegas Mar 21, 1999 $2000 Las Vegas I've talked to a lot of people, and I might be the luckiest guy in the world but I think there's more to it. I have now won 7 times in a row. I've never met anyone that has one so many times consistently. I've developed a system and I want to share it with you. Philosophy Once you learn how to play the cards right, the key to blackjack is to bet intelligently, and aggressively. Most of your winnings occur during a single shoe. Quite often, I would be down around a $1000, and then come roaring back in 10-15 minutes. The trick is to identify the opportunities to bet big, and having a feeling on when to bet big. Disclaimer Although this system seems to be working pretty well for me right now, I have no delusions that it can go on forever. We are talking about gambling here, and sometimes the cards just don't go your way. The good thing about my system is that when the cards are not in your favor, it also minimizes your losses. Learn to play the cards First and foremost, learn how to play the cards. There is a basic system to playing blackjack, that is documented all over the web, also in any book that you might want to buy. It takes a while to practice every situation, but you will never win if you don't play the cards in the time proven way that all experts play the cards. Next, once you learn to play the cards, ALWAYS play the cards that way. This means, that you should play by this system independent of the amount of money you bet, or what your 'gut' says. For example, when dealer has a 7 showing, and you have 16 the book says to hit. That's pretty hard to do when you have $500 on the table, but you gotta do it. Momentum Blackjack Now here's the key to my system. First pick a minimum amount that you will gamble. In my case, this is usually between $50 and $75 but it can be any number with which you feel comfortable. It's usually good to start at the beginning of a new shoe. If you start in the middle of a shoe, you really don't know what's going on or how much to bet. Assuming you're starting with a new shoe, I start with my minimum bet. As the cards are being played, keep an eye out for the flow of the cards out of the shoe. The key thing is to get a feel for whether low cards or high cards are coming out of the shoe. High cards are 10, J, Q, K, or A. First a bit more philosophy. A player's chances of winning increase substantially when the deck is stacked with high cards. Why? First, your chances of getting a 20 on the deal is increased substantially. More importantly, if the dealer has a bust card (2, 3, 4, 5, 6) showing, the dealer's chance of busting is higher as well. OK, so here's the basic idea. After every hand, you need to evaluate whether the hand was in one of four conditions, which I call Winning Big Winning Little Losing Big Losing Little Winning Big This condition exists when you and the table wins, and and there are a lot of high cards on the table. Quite a few people have 20, and perhaps the dealer busts with a high card. Here are some examples of winning big. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dealer 6 10 K Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Q K 5 J Q A 8 Q 4 7 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dealer Dealer 7 J Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 J J 3 5 10 9 K 6 10 9 Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note that when you are in a "big" situation, not very many cards are being played. I've exaggerated the situation, but quite often, almost everyone sticks with the two cards that they are dealt. Also, a little probability here. On an average hand, 5/13 of the cards should be high cards, which is about 38%. In the cases above, I've exaggerated the cards, so on the first deal, 8/14 are high cards, and the second, 7/14 are high cards. In these cases, it is very clear cut. Quite often, it is much closer, and you have to make a snap decision. I do this quickly, but trying to determine whether 1/3 cards are face cards. If you're watching the cards carefully while they are being dealt, it is usually pretty easy to determine if 1/3 are face cards. In the beginning, it helps to find a dealer that moves a little slower than some of the lightening fast dealers. Losing Big This condition occurs when a lot of high cards come out, but the dealer wins the hand, and by and large the table loses. This situation doesn't happen too often, but when it does, it is bad news. Here are a few examples. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dealer Q K Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 J J 8 6 10 9 K 6 10 J 8 6 Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dealer Q 6 10 Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 8 4 J 7 10 Q 5 K 6 8 10 9 Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------- When you're losing big, quite often the table is busting, trying to beat dealer's face card. Winning Little This is the most favorable condition as a bettor. If it happens twice, in a row, watch out. This is the most important condition to recognize, because this is the largest betting opportunity that you have. A few more examples. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dealer 8 6 8 Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 J 8 3 2 5 6 5 6 5 4 A 6 6 10 8 6 Q 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dealer 7 4 2 5 Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Q J 7 4 8 5 3 2 10 6 8 10 7 7 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notice how many more cards are being played in each hand compared to the big 'situation". This condition is very critical, particulary if it happens two times in a row, because when you are winning little, the next few hands are very good that you will start winning big. So start betting big! Losing Little This is a similar condition to Winning Little, but dealer is getting the low cards in order to beat the table. Quite often in this situation, the dealer will pull a 21 with a low card. Here are some examples. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dealer 8 6 7 Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 J 8 3 2 5 6 5 6 5 4 A 6 6 10 8 6 Q 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dealer 7 4 2 7 Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Q J 7 4 8 5 3 2 10 6 8 10 7 7 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- I've intentionally changed very few cards between losing little and winning little to show how small a difference there is between the two. From a shoe standpoint, they have the same effect, the only difference is whether you're winning or losing, which is a momentum factor. Betting strategy Here is a little table of guidelines on how I bet when each condition occurs. +------------------+----------------------------------------------------------+ I Condition I Betting Strategy I +------------------+----------------------------------------------------------+ I Winning Big I OK, so are you winning but a lot of high cards are I I I coming out. The fact that you are winning is good, I I I but don't go crazy here because the deck is shifting I I I toward low cards. However, if prior to this there were I I I several consecutive winning high and winning little, I I I there might be some reason to be optimistic. At any I I I rate, I usually hold my bet at this point, or increase I I I slightly. I never increase by a large factor in this I I I situation. I +------------------+----------------------------------------------------------+ I Losing Big I This is really the worst betting situation on the table. I I I I really don't like it when this situation occurs at I I I the beginning of a shoe. If this happens a couple of I I I times in a row, I am usually lowering my bet a lot. I I I Quite often, I'll go all the way down to minimum bet. I I I I see a lot of people after losing these type of hands I I I increasing their bet, because they feel that their I I I has got to change. The reality is that the deck is I I I moving to low cards, and their luck probably won't I I I change that shoe. I +------------------+----------------------------------------------------------+ I Winning Little I I love when this condition occurs. And then if it I I I happens a few times in a row, or 3/4 hands in a row, I I I this is where I go nuts. If I have $50, I could easily I I I increase to $500. Sometimes, it will take hours for I I I this condition to come up, but you have to be patient I I I and when it happens, pounce hard. I +------------------+----------------------------------------------------------+ I Losing Little I Although this situation is not as good as winning little,I I I but it's not a bad betting situation. I never decrease I I I my bet after losing little, and sometimes I'll increase I I I my bet. Not a lot, mind you, maybe 50-100%, but I I I nevertheless UP. It really depends on your feel for I I I what's going on. I'll talk more on this in the I I I section. I +------------------+----------------------------------------------------------+ Casinos First, not all casinos are the same. All of them have slightly different rules, that have different rules. First, you should only play at casinos that allow you to play the cards as the rule book says. There quite a few places, that only allow a double down on 9, 10, 11. This is really bad, because you can win a lot of money when doubling on an ace and a low card, if dealer has a 5 or 6 showing. I don't like playing in places with rules like this. There are also places that will limit the number of times that you can split, or double down after a split. More importantly, you need to find a table that will allow you to bet up to large numbers when you need to. In Las Vegas, a $25 minimum bet table, will allow a maximum bet of $3000. This is plenty for this system. However, in Sioux City, the minimum bet is $25 and the maximum is $200. This is really bad. As a rule, you will want to have a spread of 30X between max bet over min bet. Insurance I never play insurance, EVER. If you think about it, in a totally random environment, dealer will have blackjack, 4/13 times. Follow me? This is slightly over 30% of the time, yet insurance pays even money. So therefore, the probability would have to be 50% in order to breakeven. It's just a dumb bet. Insurance would have to pay over 2 to 1 in order to make it a decent bet. I think that the casinos make a lot of money off of this scam. Surrender Some casinos allow you to lose half your bet, if you surrender. You would do this if you have a crummy hand, and dealer has a good card showing probably a face card. There are a lot of theories on this, but I never give up on a hand. Trends In order to win at blackjack, you have to be willing to play for a long time. Couple of hours minimum. Sometimes even longer than that. The key to betting is to follow the trend in the shoe. That is, what is the trend of winning big, winning little, losing big, and losing little. For example, when you start a new shoe, and you start winning big, then winning little. There are probably not a lot of betting opportunities left in the shoe, because there are primarily little cards left. The best idea is to ride it out. The best situation is when you start winning little right out of the shoot, perhaps with a few losing littles sprinkled in there. This doesn't happen too often, maybe 2-3 times in a 3 hour period of time. But when it happens, pounce hard. Start betting as large as you feel comfortable. Note: you are not guaranteed to win, every time that you start betting big, but you will certainly win more times than not. The idea of spotting trends in the shoe takes practice, but it is critical. There are so many black jack players that vary their bet from $25 to $75, and it is very difficult to win large amounts of money doing this. Lastly, you have to know when to stop. After I start betting big, and winning big, I usually think to myself that I'll stop after a few shoes to see if the trend continues. If not, I cash in my chips, and start over the next day. Conclusion I've had a lot of fun doing this! You get to meet a lot of people, the drinks are free, and you win money. What a great combination! I hope that all my friends can experience something similar. Send me an email at chengrob@aol.com and let me know how well you do. Good luck, everyone. Yes, no matter what, you still have to be lucky!